With the Congress facing massive anti-incumbency in Karnataka in the run up to the crucial polls, the party and the mainstream media managed to pull up a survey indicating a landslide victory for them in the Karnataka Elections. The survey which has been conducted by C-Fore, a multi disciplinary research organisation, and which is based on random sampling method came out with the conclusion that the Congress is likely to win 118-128 seats in the 224-seat Assembly.
The media has reported this survey aggressively and widely. The mainstream media outlets have almost concluded that the Congress is going to win the polls in Karnataka for all practical purposes. However, what they deliberately omitted was the fact that the Congress shares a close association with this organisation. In fact, C-Fore has conducted this third survey predicting Siddaramaiah’s victory, while everyone else is predicting dwindling fortunes for the Congress and a resurgent BJP in the state.
According to a National Herald report, one of the surveys which had predicted an outright victory for Chief Minister Siddaramaiah was reportedly ordered by his party. Therefore, it appears that the Congress ordered a survey to be conducted showing that they would emerge victorious in the elections. This is further elucidated by a Deccan Herald report which stated that a survey conducted by C-Fore from March 1 to March 25, conducted at the instance of the Congress, stated that the their vote share would swell up by 9 per cent as compared to its 2013 share, while the number of seats will rise from 122 to 126 seats. Admittedly, it was the Congress which had first revealed the summarised version of the report through informal channels.
Meanwhile, the claims of this survey seem to have been rejected by a renowned agency, 5Forty3, which has shot to fame for predicting poll results with impeccable accuracy. It was the only organisation that had correctly predicted a huge victory for the BJP during 2014 general elections and 2017 UP Assembly elections. Moreover, it was the only organisation that had accurately predicted the Delhi elections. Its electoral analysis is the best in the nation and its analysis is bound to be taken with all seriousness. The electoral analysis agency has concluded that the BJP seems to be inching ahead in the state. 5Forty3 editorial has put the blame on misplaced strategies devised by the Congress. Going by 5Forty3’s analysis, one gets the impression that the BJP is going to do well in the state. Predictions of a landslide Congress victory therefore appear to be far-fetched in such circumstances.
The media has reported it as if an independent reliable survey had predicted a massive Congress victory. The veracity and credibility of this survey is perhaps similar to that of an internal party survey at best. It seems that the only purpose behind this survey was to project the notion that the Congress is leading in Karnataka. The media outlets should have at least given a disclaimer before publicising the controversial survey. However, there has been a clear attempt to mislead the nation over a survey by an organisation which seems to be a Congress mouthpiece.
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