I have been reading and writing about military standoff between India And China in Doklam and I have a strong feeling that we will not get into a war or even an armed conflict as it’s known fact that starting a war is easy not stopping it.
It is said that in Military terms that Attack to defence ratio required for offensive side to decisively win a war is 3:1 analysing this Does china have the numbers to take on the mighty Indian Army despite being numerically superior? Answer is a big NO. Yes, they are superior in terms of number but they lack experience and also the numbers aren’t significantly high, Its just 1:1.5 in favour of china.
But India-born UK economist and politician Meghnad Desai has said that a full-scale war may soon take place between India and China. He said that the current military standoff in Doklam would be the trigger to the war between India and China.
Desai is a member of the British House of Lords, which is equivalent to India’s Rajya Sabha. He is also considered an expert on South Asian affairs.
Desai said that the war between India and China would be fought in multiple theatres and it is expected that America will support India in the fight.
Desai said that the chance of finding a diplomatic solution is decreasing with every passing day and the only solution left would be military intervention. He said that the war between India and China could start within a month and it would be uncontrollable. Desai said that India’s efforts to form military ties with other countries would prove helpful in case of a full-scale war between India and China.
“Even today, nobody is contemplating that the whole Doklam thing could break anytime. We could be in a full scale war with China within a month. At that stage it will not be controllable. It may come as a surprise, but that is when the defence co-operation of India (with various countries) will bear fruit,” Desai told IANS in an interview.
But is a war really likely to break out?
“I am not a Jyothishi (astrologer). I cannot say what day or date but I think at this time it is very likely that we will be in a state of full-scale war with China very soon. And mind you, on several fronts, not just Doklam. It is just one frontier, they will start from all places, across the northern Himalayas,” Desai, a recipient of the Padma Bhushan, India’s third highest civilian honour, claimed.
He said that India and the America have an “implicit defence relationship” and that the two countries can safely rely on each other. When asked specifically on the expected reaction of the United States in case there is a war between India and China and whether Washington would stand shoulder-to-shoulder with India, Desai responded: “Absolutely”. “Ultimately, you have to understand that India cannot stand up to China without American help and support. America cannot stand up to China without Indian help. That is the symmetry in this relationship,” he elaborated.
Desai maintained that “China is the central problem” in the way the American vision is constructed. When asked about the possibility of any backchannel discussions with America on the Doklam standoff, Desai said that there were not just backchannel negotiations in play but it was being dealt with at the highest level by President Donald Trump and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who talk directly to each other.
“All things that follow now will have a lot to do with what happens in the South China Sea. The United States of America has sent out enough signals. If there is war, it will be a US-China war, with India on the US side, in the South China Sea and in the Himalayas. This trio is a very combustible mixture right now,” he contended. He said that it is important to understand the Chinese thought process because they are “much more nationalistic, militaristic and aggressive” this time. “I am sure we are not told everything that is going on. But my worry is even though India will not openly become militaristic but have we got the preparedness for it? We may have things in place. I just wish and hope that we are prepared for a very tough war which may last for a long time,” he predicted. Desai also suggested that India should not make the mistake of equating the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) with the Pakistani Army.
“I think, from past experience, we always assume that we are well prepared but you will be fighting one of the finest armies in the world. It is a very powerful army and I think they also have (much) training in mountain warfare. So, according to me, it will be a very tough fight for India. Don’t be mistaken that this will be easy. It is not Pakistan. The Pakistani Army is the same set of people. They come from the same army traditions and they have the same thinking but the Chinese are very different,” he reiterated.
The words from someone as credible as Meghnad Desai are not the good sign for the world as a war between China and India will collapse the world economy, sending it to free-fall. Also if this war happens, other countries like U.S, Russia, Pakistan, Israel will join in, which will result in world war 3. China is wise enough to understand this. They are on their peak, on their way to become a superpower. A war can bring a lot of uncertainties; both the countries shouldn’t take this risk.